CHINA DIARY - INDIA CHINA AND THE WORLD ECONOMY 2009

I am sharing the views from a good Indian  friend who works for a large MNC in Being. He is in the automotive industry there and earlier worked in the same sector in India. My friend travels a lot across China and his views reflect his observations 

The theories of decoupling of Asia from the western world which were doing the rounds have come to a naught. The impact has been across varying in degree. Korean and Taiwanese economies besides HK took a huge beating owing to huge dependence of the overall economy on exports. Indonesia got affected with oil prices going down and the ensuing bust in commodity prices owing to perceived drop in demand for coal and thereby mining industry. Thailand has had a political imbroglio compounding the overall economic investment climate besides the export dependence contributing to the slowdown. Malaysia which seemed to be standing up and not slowing has started shaking now. So it is all over.

 

China which is supposed to emerge as a saviour … is showing strong policy drive by huge internal consumption stimulus in spite of the huge challenge of loss of jobs and contraction in the export sector. The scale and size of the stimulus package is stupendous. The confidence and sure footedness resolve of the government is likely to sail them through. When the President or the Premier here says that they would achieve 8% then they would!!

 

Another interesting trend that I see in China is that the runaway labor cost increases which one witnessed in the last 5 year are correcting which means that the labor rates are dropping with the workforce getting redeployed and absorbed after taking salary and wage cuts è all this would lead to another wave of cost efficiency making China weather this and become even more competitive. This holds good for india too but not to the same scale.

 

In India I have heard that there are new startup which owing to downsizing in the IT sector are able to hire talent easily now. Do we see an emergence of a new entrepreneurial wave in the near future?

 

I feel at the end of all this China would surge ahead further and even India would emerge stronger. Though it would be more painful for China (over 50% dependence on exports as compared to 20% of India).

H1B VISAS - THE NEW RULES - ONLY 1000 JOBS AT STAKE

The H1B amendment that passed isn’t as tough as the one Grassley proposed on Feb. 5, which would have prohibited firms from hiring H-1Bs altogether. The modified amendment instead makes TARP recipients like Citibank, Bank of America , GM etc  jump through extra hoops before they can hire those foreign workers. Specifically, it subjects recipients of TARP funds to the same rules so-called H-1B dependent employers must follow. (An H-1B dependent employer is one whose workers brought in with that visa comprise 15% or more of the employer's total workforce.) 

The new additions in the H1B rules include:

1. The employer can’t displace any similarly employed U.S. worker with an H-1B hire within 90 days before or after applying for H-1B status or an extension of status.

2. The employer can’t place any H-1B worker at the worksite of another employer – meaning it can’t outsource a worker for a client – unless that employer first makes a “bona fide” inquiry as to whether the other employer has displaced or will displace a U.S. worker within 90 days before or after the placement of the H-1B worker.

3. The employer has to take good-faith steps to recruit U.S. workers for the job opening, at wages at least equal to those offered to the H-1B worker. The employer must offer the job to any U.S. worker who applies and is equally or better qualified than the H-1B worker.

“These are hardly onerous expectations,” notes Ron Hira, professor of public policy at the Rochester Institute of Technology and an expert on H-1B visas. Hira says the provision would affect about 1,000 jobs.

2009 - A BAD YEAR FOR JOBS GLOBALLY

Global Economy - A Gloomy Outlook for 2009

New Jobs creation as well as retention of existing jobs are linked directly with the economy. 2009 is a bad year in general.

2009 looks a bad year for the global economy. I was reading in the latest issue of Newsweek about the happenings in Davos. The Newsweek correspondent was trying to find at least one senior management person ( from the illustrious crowd who had gathered at Davos ) who was optimistic about 2009.

The quick and dirty survey could not reveal even one, although he did meet a few Indian industrialists there.

Combine this with the following facts about the world’s largest economy  ( Courtesy Bloomberg ) :

Sales at U.S. retailers probably fell in January for a seventh straight month as surging unemployment hobbled consumers, economists said a report this week will show.

Purchases fell 0.8 percent, capping the longest slide since comparable records began in 1992, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Other reports may show falling oil prices helped narrow the trade gap and prevented consumer confidence from sinking further.

Household spending is likely to keep shrinking as job losses mount, home prices skid and banks limit lending. President Barack Obama is seeking to push a $900 billion stimulus package through Congress this month to jump-start the economy over objections by some lawmakers that the plan is too focused on spending and will bloat the government deficit.

“Consumers are still shell-shocked,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Folks just aren’t spending right now.”

Retailers are bracing for the first annual drop in sales this year in at least 14 years, according to the National Retail Federation. January same-store sales dropped 1.6 percent from a year ago, the International Council of Shopping Centers reported last week.

The unemployment rate jumped to 7.6 percent in January, the highest level since 1992, the Labor Department said last week. Payrolls plunged by 598,000, bringing the total number of jobs lost over the last 13 months to 3.6 million, the biggest slump in the postwar period.

Consumer Slump

Consumer spending is set to contract again in the current quarter, economists forecast, after falling in the second half of 2008. Purchases haven’t decreased for three consecutive quarters since records began in 1947.

The Commerce Department’s retail sales report is due Feb. 12. The estimated decline would follow a 2.7 percent drop in December. Excluding automobiles, sales decreased 0.4 percent in January after falling 3.1 percent the prior month, according to the survey median.

The world’s largest economy may contract at about a 5.5 percent annual pace this quarter after declining at a 3.8 percent rate in the last three months of 2008, according to a forecast by economists at Morgan Stanley in New York. Last quarter’s drop was the biggest since 1982.

Demand for expensive items such as automobiles is plunging as consumers retrench. Cars and light trucks sold in January at a 9.6 million annual rate, the lowest since June 1982, industry figures from Autodata Corp. showed. Sales plunged 55 percent at Chrysler LLC and sank 49 percent at General Motors Corp. as car loans became scarce after credit seized up late last year.

No Credit

“If you can’t get credit, you can’t sell vehicles,” Mark LaNeve, GM’s sales chief, said in an interview Feb. 3. “This is what is choking us to death.”

With overall demand cooling, imports of televisions, furniture and clothing, in addition to oil, have weakened. The trade gap probably narrowed in December to $36 billion, the lowest level since October 2002, the survey showed. Commerce will report the figures on Feb. 11.

While lower oil prices helped keep the import tab down, they also led to cheaper gasoline at the pump, providing the only bright spot to the gloomy backdrop.

A gauge of consumer sentiment this month fell to 61 from 61.2 at the end of January, according to economists surveyed before the Feb. 13 release by Reuters/University of Michigan. The measure reached a 28-year low in November.

 

 

 

 

INTERVIEWING CANDIDATES FOR YOUR COMPANY - A PRIMER

How to Interview Candidates – Some Do’s & Don’t’s

Introduction:

Very often we see interviewee’s scratching their heads to find a way, as how they can crack an interview.

Get tensed
Take Coaching's
Speak to elders and experienced people
Take advices
Read Books, Magazines...wherever they find some information as how to crack an interview

They just don't want to leave any stone unturned in their preparation for the interview.

Have you ever seen an interviewer to prepare for an interview?

Many times, I have seen, many of the interviewer's don't even care to scan through the profiles/resumes of the candidates, before sitting "Across the Interview Table". Probably, they think that take interview is not a big-deal.

Many interviewers just ask the questions as it comes to their mind, without even knowing the purpose of those questions.

What do you think how many interviews you can take in one day? If properly conducted, even if you are recruiter and hiring people for entry level positions…you can not take more than 35 interviews in a working day of 10 hours.

If you are taking more than 35 interviews…then I am sorry, you are not taking interviews but just making a fool of yourself and misrepresenting your organization.

Taking interview is an art and not everybody can take interviews. In this write-up we will try to explore this art for the benefit of readers.

You can read the complete article at: http://ezinearticles.com/?Art-of-Taking-Interviews:-Benchmarking- Interviews&id=387427

Let's make a beginning

An interview is a conversation between two or more people where questions are asked to obtain information about the interviewee.

Interviews can be divided into two rough types :

1. Interviews of assessment
2. Interviews for information.

So, do you think that you can take an interview of a person having more than 10 years of experience? I don't think so. If a person is having more than 10 years of functional experience than you are just belittling his image, expertise and stature by taking his interview. At that level, it can only be discussion or interaction for mutual growth and benefit.

I have seen in some of the companies Fresher (People with less than 2 years of experience) taking an interview of a person for the position of HR-Manager (with experience of 6+ Years).

Here I like to share one incident/case. ( Case Study: A Great Company plus a Great Recruitment Consultancy Firm...And A Great Goof-up; Link: http://ezinearticles.com/?Case-Study:-A-Great-Company-Plus-A-Grea t-Recruitment-Consultancy-Firm...And-A-Great-Goof&id=291674)

As I have said earlier in my write-up "Employee Retention Process and Your Marriage" (Link: http://ezinearticles.com/?Employee-Retention-Process-and-Your-Mar riage&id=368554) that recruitment is a first step towards the retention of an employee. You are marketing your company.

First Step: Before Starting the Interview

Prepare for the interview: Take some time to go through the profile of the candidate. Try to understand his role and also prepare a list of questions that you like to ask.
Schedule your time. Don't give same time to more than one person.
Start the interview on time. If you think that you will not be able to start the interview on specified time then inform the candidate. Even if you have informed the candidate about the expected delay…apologize before you start the interview.

Environment for the Interview

Don't take interview at a place, which is either too noisy or too congested.
If possible, put a tag "Do not disturb "outside your cabin or room.
Ensure that the lights are proper and the person sitting there is comfortable.
Record the proceedings of the interview. If you have voice recorder, that will be excellent but if you don't have…then write in down.

Begin the Interview

The candidate might think…Who are you to take my interview?

1. Introduce yourself.
2. Your Name
3. Your Designation
4. Your Total Experience
5. A brief about your role in the organization
6. Since how long you have been associated with your present organization.

Introduce the company that you are representing. How big is the company? What are the various interests and businesses of the company? How it has grown in last 3-5 years? What was profit after tax…in the last financial year? What are the future growth plans of the organization?

Discuss about the profile/job opening for which you are interviewing the person sitting opposite to you.

Specify the qualities and knowledge level that you are looking for.

Also, care to inform him…why his resume has been short listed.

What will be the Recruitment Process that you are going to follow?

Lastly, approximately how many days will it take to close the position?

Discuss about the career growth of the position for which you are taking the interview.

What are the growth prospects? Don't make false commitments.

Now, smartly put the ball in his court by asking him to give a brief about his family, followed by his education.

Start asking the questions about his present job and then move to the previous assignment or job.

Concentrate on following things:

1) His role

2) His span of control

3) Organizational Hierarchy

4) Major achievements in that particular job/ role.

5) Major Challenges that he has faced in his present job; in his career; in his life

6) Why he want to change his job and why he has changed his jobs in past?

Appreciate him, when he discusses about his achievements. Make him comfortable and provoke him to speak as much as he can.

Ask him about his strengths and his personal achievements.

Don't forget to ask him about his goals, aspirations…where he sees himself in next 5-6 years. What is his purpose in life? What are his dreams?

Closing the interview

Tell the candidate that it was a pleasure to talk to him and you are through with the interview, however, if he have any question; if he want ask or know anything…he can do that.

Tell him that someone from your team will get in touch with him for future course of action.

You can read the complete article at: http://ezinearticles.com/?Art-of-Taking-Interviews:-Benchmarking- Interviews&id=387427

Conclusion

During the interview…don't frown at him. Carry a smiling face. In that interview cabin…you are trying to sell the vision of your company; the policies and procedures. Once the candidate is out from the interview cabin, he will be doing an advertisement for your company…Good or bad…choice is yours.

Taking an interview as an Art; if you are expert, you can literally take anybody's interview.

For me the purpose or outcome of the interview should be, "Doesn't matter whether I select the candidate or not; doesn't matter if he joins me or not; but we should be able to stay in touch with each other". That should be the impact he should have; that should be the impression that he should carry with him; that should be the pleasure he should be able to draw from that interaction.

Remember, while taking interviews...you are actually an unofficial ambassador of your company; you are representing your company; you are creating an image for your company and you are building a brand for your company. Doesn't matter whether you select that person or not...unknowingly you are doing an advertisement for your company.

If you are able to represent your company is a proper and professional manner he might join your company...if not now....might be in future. He might recommend you in his company or in his contacts but if handled in an unprofessional manner...he will not join your company and will tell others in his circle to not to join your company.

I am sure, you will like this write-up. Do share your views.

Keep Smiling. Keep Learning and Keep Growing.

Indian Industry is relaxing all norms while recruiting ...

The other day I came across in Hyderabad an advertisement in the local newspapers regarding a BPO JOB FAIR from 10 AM to midnight. Age / Sex no bar. Walk-in and Walk-out with your offer. Imagine you are a retired (voluntary retirement) banker and I know many of these species. Here is an opportunity to earn a few thousands ( Rs 10,000 +), work in a 100 % air-conditioned environment, interact with young people. I would jump at it.

Software companies have relaxed the educational qualifications while hiring. For instance, a top 10 Indian software company, used to only hire engineers with over 60 %. Today, the same company hires laterally software engineers who have a 50 % pass mark. Forget engineers, they are willing to hire Diploma holders. The reason, an acute shortage of people, the right type of people.

Whether it is software or BPO or retail or restaurants, there is an acute shortage. Forget, white-collared workers, look at the construction industry. The kind of revolution which we are seeing across India demands – Blue-collared workers to build, paint etc etc. Here again there is an acute shortage. Witness the advertisements in the local vernacular press.

In any party or seminar or meeting, I am asked about this talent shortage across industrial sectors. My reply dear Reader – “ SUPPLY catches up with DEMAND “.

Remember, we are a nation of over a Billion in terms of population. Every year, millions are joining the work-force. The rules of ECONOMICS will get applied automatically. You will see that the new workforce will learn new skills. Potential employers will train / retrain their existing / potential workforce so that the industry needs are met.

What should the Indian government do ? I personally am of the opinion that the government should help the private sector by subsidizing the skills training etc etc.

Talent Shortage in India - Case Study - Fine Dining Restaurants - Dec 2006

As a seasoned recruitment professional (atleast I think so) after 20 years in recruitment in India, I thought that there will be very few surprises I will face.
The current economy and related job boom has left me in a 'Daze'.

Forget, the demand for '' Top Honchos'' to man the board rooms / corner rooms, I am talking about the acute shortage of people who stand and serve. I mean physically they stand and serve over long hours.

The other day, I saw a 'Wanted Posted' outside a 'Fine Dining Restaurant' in Chennai. Dear Reader, as you know, Chennai is considered the most conservative place in the southern part of India. South Chennai - Mylapore is the heartland of conservatism. Here I saw a big , bold advt in front of the shop ........

Wanted Cooks, Waiters, Floor Supervisors, Captains .. Salary NO BAR. Free accomodation provided. Walk In and take the job..............

Dear Reader, I was Zapped..........I am in Conservative Chennai and not California, where one is accustomed to see such 'Wanted Posters' over the years.

The fact is dear Reader , the Indian Tiger is on the prowl. Our growth rates @ 10 % +, although our reputed economists under-estimate them regularly. India is the place to be, besides China.

Looking forward to hear your comments on the job scene in India.

Lakshmi